The fragile peace in northern Ethiopia has collapsed into renewed violence, as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reportedly launched a major offensive, seizing control of critical infrastructure and raising concerns about a potential resumption of a large-scale civil war in the north. The armed group is reportedly engaged in fierce fighting with Ethiopian federal government forces across several locations.
According to analysts, large-scale hostilities broke out on Wednesday between the TPLF and Amhara Fano militias on one side and the Ethiopian federal government and allied Tigrayan forces on the other after months of rising tensions. Reports suggest that the conflict is expanding beyond Tigray’s borders, with TPLF forces allegedly launching attacks in neighboring regions. of Afar and Amhara.
Infrastructure seizures and communications blackout
Although the federal government has tried to maintain control by carrying out drone strikes and ground operations, the TPLF has gained control of three airports from federal forces, including those in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. The escalation of hostilities has triggered widespread panic buying, as well as reports of intensified fighting spreading into neighboring regions.
On Friday, media outlets reported that communications services had been disrupted in Tigray. Aid agencies have also reported significant disruptions to phone and internet service in Tigray, hindering humanitarian operations.
Residents fear a repeat of the communications blackout during the 2020–2022 civil war in northern Ethiopia, when Tigray was largely cut off from the outside world.
This week’s escalation follows Sunday's announcement in which the TPLF declared an alliance with six other armed groups, including the Fano militia of the Amhara region and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), with the stated goal of ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.
These developments effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which had previously sought to stabilize the region.
The sudden outbreak of violence has sent shockwaves through Tigray's population, which is still reeling from the brutal civil war that ended just four years ago. Rooted in a power struggle between the regional and federal governments, that previous conflict left an estimated 600,000 people dead and pushed the region to the brink of famine.
The Tigray war was one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. Although the 2022 peace deal aimed to resolve political tensions, key provisions—including the disarmament of Tigray’s armed forces and the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced people—were never fully implemented.
Fears of regional spillover
Political analysts warn that the current escalation could quickly lead to a broader regional confrontation. There are growing concerns that the fighting could draw in Eritrea and spread to neighboring countries, further destabilizing the already crisis-ridden Horn of Africa.
Similar tensions persist elsewhere in Ethiopia, including clashes between government forces and the Fano militia in the Amhara region. Aid operations in the north, particularly in parts of Amhara, were already facing significant constraints due to insecurity, including the seizure of humanitarian vehicles and other assets by armed actors.
Meanwhile, ongoing hostilities in western Oromia continue to displace civilians and obstruct humanitarian operations.
Humanitarian impacts
The overall humanitarian situation in several regions of Ethiopia remains dire. Despite some security improvements over the last four years, approximately 1.9 million Ethiopians remained displaced by conflict, insecurity, and climate-related shocks before renewed fighting began.
Years of prolonged drought and persistent violence have left millions without adequate food supplies. Ethiopia is also facing a massive influx of refugees and currently hosts over 1.1 million people, mostly from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan. Over 97,000 of these individuals have arrived from Sudan since April 2023.
On Friday, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that the escalation of conflict in northern Ethiopia could worsen the already significant humanitarian crisis, including for those displaced by the previous Tigray conflict. The humanitarian office noted that the affected area is also experiencing below-average rainfall linked to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.
The UN and its partners continue regular humanitarian operations in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar where security allows. They are assessing emerging needs and developing plans to respond to those impacted by the fighting. However, the insecurity is already affecting these operations.
On Sunday, a drone strike in northwestern Tigray hit a truck carrying critical food assistance for internally displaced people. Road closures in some areas have paused or disrupted planned movements.
“All parties must ensure safe and unhindered access for humanitarian partners to reach those in need. Humanitarian workers must be protected at all times,” OCHA stressed.
In response to the deteriorating security situation, the spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement on Wednesday expressing "grave concern" over the situation.
In the statement, Guterres highlighted the "seizure and occupation of the three airports of Mekelle, Axum and Shire" and “reports of intensified fighting in and around Tigray and the spread of hostilities into neighboring areas.”
He called on all parties to "exercise maximum restraint, immediately de-escalate tensions, protect civilians, ensure safe and unhindered access for humanitarian partners to reach those in need and avoid actions that could lead to a broader and more devastating conflict."
Through his spokesperson, the Secretary-General further reiterated his support for African Union efforts, including the engagement of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, to re-engage the parties in good-faith talks under the framework of the Pretoria Agreement.
On Friday, analysts from the International Crisis Group (ICG) emphasized that it is "not too late to avert a return to costly, bloody war," warning of the "potentially horrific" humanitarian consequences of a major new conflict in Ethiopia.