Myanmar’s ruling junta “is losing” its war against a coalition of domestic forces but still remains highly dangerous, a United Nations special rapporteur on the human rights situation in the country said Wednesday. Meanwhile, the human rights and humanitarian crisis continues to worsen in Myanmar, with more than 18 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.
Supporters of the ousted democratically elected government have joined forces with a collection of ethnically organized militias to fight the brutal, repressive leadership, with increasing success.
According to the independent expert, the military junta has responded to mounting losses of troops and territory by escalating airstrikes on villages, blocking humanitarian aid and announcing plans to conscript thousands of young people into the military. Many have gone into hiding, fled the country or joined resistance forces.
“The tide is turning in Myanmar because of widespread citizen opposition to the junta and mounting battlefield victories by resistance forces,” said Tom Andrews, who presented his latest report to the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) on Tuesday.
At a briefing for reporters Wednesday, Andrews said the junta is losing territory, bases, and troops, and losing its capacity “to promote the fiction that it is in any way legitimate” or that it can unify the country by force.
“The junta now controls less than half of Myanmar and has lost tens of thousands of troops to casualties, surrender, or defections since it launched its military coup over three years ago,” he said.
Andrews added that Myanmar’s military, “while desperate,” remains extremely dangerous and has escalated its punishing assault on the civilian population.
“The past five months have seen a fivefold increase in airstrikes against civilian targets,” he said, noting that the number killed or injured by landmines “more than doubled last year.”
Since the junta toppled the country’s democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, thousands of people have been killed, tens of thousands arbitrarily arrested and detained, and millions displaced.
The special rapporteur is calling on states to stop exporting the sophisticated, powerful weapons Myanmar is using to kill civilians, warning that the violence and chaos in Myanmar could spill over into the region and the wider world.
“Thousands of desperate people continue to flee into neighboring countries. Junta fighter jets have violated the airspace of Myanmar’s neighbors, bombs have landed across borders,” he said.
Underscoring the dangers of appeasing and supporting the junta, Andrews noted that criminal networks “have found a safe haven in Myanmar.”
“Myanmar is now the top opium producer in the world and a global center for cyber-scam operations that enslave tens of thousands and victimize untold numbers of people around the world,” he said.
The junta's military crackdown and abusive treatment of civilians has taken a terrible toll. The Burmese human rights organization The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners estimates that more than 4,700 people have been killed and more than 26,000 arrested, most of whom remain in detention.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that at the end of February 2024, more than 2.7 million people in Myanmar were internally displaced and 18.6 million people in the country, including 6 million children, were in need of humanitarian assistance.
More than 78,000 civilian properties, including houses, religious structures, and education and health facilities, were reportedly destroyed in conflict-affected states and regions as of November 2023.
To make matters worse, Andrews said the junta has begun a program of forced military recruitment, “at times abducting young men on the street.” Others are going into hiding or fleeing the country.
“Particularly hard hit are the besieged members of the Rohingya community who are now being subjected to ongoing bombardment by junta forces. But, unlike most in Myanmar, the Rohingya are prohibited from moving to safety,” he said.
“Now, the junta is trying to force young Rohingya to do the unfathomable — join the very military that is committing these relentless attacks and that committed genocide against their community, forcing hundreds of thousands over the border into Bangladesh.”
In August 2017, more than 700,000 Rohingya Muslims fled to Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh to escape persecution, violence, and serious human rights violations in Myanmar’s Rakhine state.
About 1 million Rohingya live in what is known as the world’s largest refugee camp in overcrowded conditions, with little access to education and no ability to earn an income, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation and serious protection risks. The United Nations describes the Rohingya as the most persecuted minority in the world. Myanmar’s government has denied the Rohingya citizenship and sees them as foreign interlopers.
Andrews has called on the international community not to turn a blind eye to the horrors that are ongoing in Myanmar. He said strong, concerted international action is required to stop the killing of innocent civilians and bring down the illegitimate leaders.
He said impunity for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Myanmar must end. For that to happen, he said, “Those who are responsible for atrocity crimes in Myanmar must know that they will be held accountable.”
On Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres also expressed his deep concern about the deteriorating situation and escalating conflict in Myanmar.
In a statement issued through his spokesperson, Guterres condemned all forms of violence and reiterated his call for the protection of civilians, including aid workers, in accordance with international humanitarian law, the cessation of hostilities and humanitarian access.
"The expansion of conflict in Rakhine State is driving displacement and exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities and discrimination. The Secretary-General calls on all parties to prevent further incitement of communal tensions," the statement said.
According to his spokesperson, Guterres was also alarmed by reports of continued airstrikes by the military, which have reportedly killed and injured many civilians, and concerned by reports of the forced detention and recruitment of young people, including Rohingya, and the potential impact of forced conscription on human rights in Myanmar.
OCHA said on Wednesday that the conflict in Myanmar continues to drive humanitarian needs and poses serious protection threats. In Rakhine State, civilians are bearing the brunt of ongoing fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Armed Forces, with deadly aerial bombardments and heavy shelling in residential areas.
“Forced recruitment is also a growing concern. Humanitarian organizations are sounding the alarm over water scarcity in sites housing displaced people, as the area soon faces the driest weeks of the year,” UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said in a press conference.
"Some aid is reaching affected communities through local efforts, but it is not enough. Stockpiles of life-saving supplies are dwindling, with the cyclone season just around the corner."
In the southeast, airstrikes and shelling in southern Shan townships have also been reported in recent days, with several civilians reportedly injured and homes damaged.
In the northwest, clashes in Sagaing's Kale Township have severely affected civilians, according to the spokesperson. Some 28,000 people have been displaced since the escalation of fighting between the Myanmar Armed Forces and People’s Defense Forces in the area in late February, with some 7,000 new displacement cases reported in the last week alone.
In the northeast, more than 20,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in Kachin townships since the Kachin Independence Army launched a new wave of offensive attacks on March 7.
Overall, more than 800,000 people have been displaced since fighting escalated in October last year.
But humanitarian operations in the country remain severely underfunded. The UN Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for 2024 seeks US$994 million, and it is just 7 percent funded.
Some information for this report provided by VOA.
Further information
Full text: Turning tide in Myanmar requires stronger international action as desperate, dangerous junta escalates civilian attacks: UN expert, UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, press release, published March 20, 2024
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/03/turning-tide-myanmar-requires-stronger-international-action-desperate
Full text: Situation of human rights in Myanmar. Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar (A/HRC/55/65), Fifty-second session of the Human Rights Council, submitted March 19, 2024
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session55/advance-versions/A-HRC-55-65-AUV.docx
Full text: Statement attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General - on Myanmar
March 18, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, released March 18, 2024
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2024-03-18/statement-attributable-the-spokesperson-for-the-secretary-general-myanmar