In the latest setback for Myanmar's military rulers, resistance forces have seized near-total control of a key border town on the main land trade route between Myanmar and Thailand. Amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, conflict has escalated in several states and regions of the country. Fighting between the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF), ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) continues to exacerbate the humanitarian situation.
The junta's defeat in Myawaddy town in Kachin State on Myanmar's eastern border follows earlier territorial losses in the north along the Chinese border and in western Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh. The armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU), Myanmar's oldest ethnic armed organization (EAO), says it now controls most of the town and is pursuing remaining junta forces in the area.
Myanmar has been in chaos since General Min Aung Hlaing and his military forces overthrew the democratically elected government in February 2021. The coup sparked widespread armed resistance by a loose alliance of ethnic groups and civilian-led defense forces. Most of the conflict has been confined to rural areas.
But on Friday, the KNU announced that it had captured a major junta base in Myawaddy with the surrender of 617 military personnel and family members. The KNU says it now controls most of the town, which sits on the main highway between Thailand and Myanmar. Billions of dollars worth of goods pass through it every year
Padoh Saw Taw Nee, spokesperson for the KNU, told VOA that the juntaâs 275 Battalion is âstill in Myawaddy town with their division commander with them. It might be not more than 300 or 400 [personnel] left. We donât hear anything about [new] fighting yet, negotiations are continuing.â
The Irrawaddy, a Myanmar news outlet, reported that the Karen National Liberation Army and its allies had launched an attack on the battalion, the last junta forces in the area.
In Kachin, more than 18,000 people in ten townships have been displaced since the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) launched a new offensive in early March.
Padoh Saw Taw Nee said preparations were underway for the KNU to take over administrative duties, adding that junta troops who surrendered in Myawaddy were still being accounted for. He said the KNU was preparing for a strong response from the military.
âUsually, they make a heavy retaliation with the airstrikes. They always say, âWhenever you take a place, it doesn't matter, you can take the territory, but we just have to destroy the place so you canât set up your administration.â So, we need to be very careful about it,â he said.
Since the military junta overthrew the country's democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, thousands of people have been killed, tens of thousands arbitrarily arrested and detained, and millions displaced.
The ruling State Administrative Council (SAC) has waged a violent crackdown on dissent since the coup, killing more than 4,800 people and detaining more than 20,000, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners Burma, a monitoring group in Thailand.
The military has been on the defensive since an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army (AA) and the MAF broke down in November 2023, and a coalition of resistance forces staged a sudden counteroffensive last October. Armed ethnic groups captured dozens of military-held townships and posts in northern Shan State, while the ethnic Arakan Army made significant gains in western Rakhine State.
In another sign of changing fortunes, Myanmar's shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), claimed responsibility last week for more than a dozen drone attacks on junta bases in the capital, Naypyidaw.
âThe SAC is facing multiple battlefield defeats, in Karen State most dramatically, with the possible takeover of the border town of Myawaddy after months of fighting,â said David Scott Mathieson, an independent Myanmar analyst. âOn the ground, the SAC is in retreat in multiple locations, in Kachin, Arakan, and Karenni and Shan [states].â
But, Mathieson told VOA, the military âhas a large country to retreat into, with a network of bases and arms production. They may be losing but this doesnât indicate theyâre finished just yet. Their reaction to further losses or the spread of fighting into central Myanmar will be extreme force. For the SAC, savagery is a strategy.â
In contrast to the increased hostilities in northwestern and southeastern Myanmar, as well as in Rakhine, conditions in northern Shan State have been relatively stable since the announcement of a ceasefire between the MAF and the Three Brother Alliance in January 2024. Although there have been some isolated clashes, the ceasefire appears to be largely holding.
Deteriorating Humanitarian Conditions
The ongoing escalation of conflict in Myanmar - including the worst levels of violence since 2021 - is severely affecting people in almost every corner of the country, with alarming spillover effects into neighboring countries. The UN warns that the humanitarian impact is significant and deeply concerning.
Amid ongoing conflict in many parts of the country, people are fleeing their homes in record numbers, with the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) reaching more than 2.8 million, including more than 2.5 million people who have fled conflict and insecurity since the 2021 military takeover.
Approximately 110,000 people have sought refuge in neighboring countries since 1 February 2021.
More than 78,000 civilian properties, including houses, religious structures, and education and health facilities, have reportedly been destroyed in conflict-affected states and regions as of November 2023.
Meanwhile, hunger is on the rise across Myanmar. In 2024, some 12.9 million people - nearly 25 percent of the population - are food insecure, with an increased risk of malnutrition, especially among children and pregnant women.
The health system is in disarray and basic medicines are running out. It is estimated that 12 million people in Myanmar will need emergency health assistance this year alone.
In 2023, there was a staggering 270 percent increase in casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war compared to 2022, with more than a thousand casualties reported nationwide.
Across Myanmar, humanitarian organizations estimate that some 18.6 million people will need humanitarian assistance in 2024. This includes 9.7 million vulnerable women and girls. The 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan for Myanmar was only 44 percent funded. Despite the financial constraints, humanitarian organizations provided assistance to 3.2 million people across Myanmar.
However, the lack of funding still meant that more than 1.1 million people were left without priority life-saving assistance, nearly three-quarters of all planned shelter repairs and construction were not possible, and nearly 672,000 people did not have access to safe drinking water.
The continued lack of funding is undermining relief efforts. The 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HRNP), which calls for US$994 million, is only 4 percent funded as of April 11, 2024.
In addition, telecommunications disruptions and power outages in violence-affected areas, particularly in Rakhine, are hampering the ability of humanitarian agencies to gather information, assess needs, and deliver assistance.
In Rakhine, civilians are bearing the brunt of ongoing fighting between the Myanmar Armed Forces and the Arakan Army, with deadly aerial bombardments and heavy shelling, including in residential areas. The violence is raising serious protection concerns and exacerbating already severe humanitarian needs.
According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), many vulnerable displaced people in Rakhine are facing water shortages as they head into the driest weeks of the year. OCHA said the provision of shelter assistance ahead of the cyclone season is critical. Food insecurity is also a major concern, with soaring prices and extremely limited market supplies in many locations.
In the northwest, ongoing clashes are severely affecting civilians in Kale Township in Sagaing. An estimated 28,000 people have been displaced since fighting between the MAF and the People's Defense Forces escalated in the area in late February.
In the southeast, intense fighting with aerial bombardment and artillery shelling continued in southern Shan, Kayin, and Tanintharyi, resulting in the displacement of thousands of civilians.
Forced Conscription
People across Myanmar live in daily fear for their lives, especially since the recent implementation of the National Conscription Law. On February 10, Myanmar's military authorities announced plans to enforce a conscription law, with 5,000 people to be conscripted into the Myanmar Armed Forces every month from mid-April.
The law is deeply unpopular, and many young people have sought to avoid conscription. Many have fled to Thailand, which has received an estimated 45,000 refugees since the 2021 coup. Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara said this week that Thailand is preparing to take in 100,000 more.
Since the announcement, arbitrary arrests and forced recruitment have continued to affect civilians. Members of the Rohingya community have been particularly hard hit.
On Tuesday, the international rights group Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that the MAF has abducted and forcibly recruited more than 1,000 Rohingya Muslim men and boys from across Rakhine State since February 2024. The junta invoked the conscription law, which applies only to Myanmar citizens, even though the Rohingya have been denied citizenship for decades.
The United Nations describes the Rohingya as the world's most persecuted minority. Myanmar's government has denied the Rohingya citizenship and views them as foreign interlopers. The Rohingya have endured unspeakable hardship for years.
For decades, the Rohingya have faced institutionalized discrimination in Myanmar, including denial of citizenship. An estimated 600,000 Rohingya living in Myanmar's Rakhine State are unable to move freely and are subject to government persecution and violence.
In August 2017, more than 700,000 Rohingya fled to Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, to escape persecution, violence, and gross human rights violations in Myanmar's Rakhine State following coordinated attacks by the Myanmar military. They joined hundreds of thousands of other Rohingya who had previously sought refuge in the country.
Approximately 1 million Rohingya live in eastern Bangladesh in what is known as the world's largest refugee camp in overcrowded conditions, with little access to education and no means of earning an income, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation and serious protection risks.
Rohingya Fleeing by Boat
About 2,000 Rohingya refugees - an estimated 73 percent of whom are women and children - arrived in Indonesia by sea from Bangladesh and Myanmar between mid-November 2023 and the end of March 2024, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
In March, a boat carrying more than 140 Rohingya refugees capsized off the coast of West Aceh in northern Indonesia, resulting in the deaths of 67 people, including 27 children, underscoring the continued life-threatening dangers for refugees using this route.
According to UNHCR, the recent increase in the number of people attempting the sea journey has been driven by continued instability in Myanmar, lack of progress in addressing the root causes of Rohingya displacement, as well as growing insecurity and declining humanitarian assistance in the camps in Bangladesh.
Nearly 1,000 Rohingya refugees traveling by boat died or went missing at sea in 2022 and 2023, including an Indonesia-bound boat carrying approximately 200 refugees that is believed to have sunk in November 2023.
Some information for this report provided by VOA.