According to the United Nations, tens of thousands of people have fled the town of Baidoa in southern Somalia following recent clashes linked to disputed regional elections, triggering a surge in displacement and exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation. On Monday, the European Union’s humanitarian office (ECHO) reported that the risk of armed confrontation in Baidoa due to escalating political tensions is “very high.”
The South West State (SWS) held regional elections on Saturday, which the Somali federal government has deemed illegal. Simultaneously, a Somali military convoy departed the state's capital Buurhakaba, and SWS forces established defensive positions throughout Baidoa, the largest town in the state, and approximately 40 kilometers away, raising concerns about potential armed hostilities.
Following previous clashes between SWS forces and groups aligned with the opposition, over 45,000 people fled Baidoa to areas with limited access to basic services and humanitarian assistance. Most displaced families have moved to various locations across the Bay and Bakool regions, as well as Mogadishu.
Most of the displacement has been from the central neighborhoods of Baidoa to nearby villages. An estimated 30 percent of those displaced have been forced to flee again after leaving displacement sites within Baidoa. Humanitarian organizations have reported cases of acute watery diarrhea (AWD) among the displaced.
Since March 18, all commercial and private flights from SWS airports have been suspended. However, exemptions have been granted for humanitarian operations. On Sunday, the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS) successfully evacuated more than a dozen humanitarian staff from Baidoa on a European Union Humanitarian Flight.
Managed by the World Food Programme (WFP), UNHAS remains a critical lifeline for people in urgent need. In February alone, the air service transported 697 passengers and 23 metric tons of cargo to 20 destinations across Somalia, including hard-to-reach areas. This enabled operational activities for 54 relief organizations.
Humanitarian conditions are deteriorating on the outskirts of Baidoa
On Saturday, George Conway, the Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia, urged all parties to the conflict to uphold their obligations to protect civilians and guarantee safe, sustained, and unimpeded humanitarian access.
In a statement, Conway expressed concern for the most vulnerable people, 30 percent of whom were already living in displacement sites, and who are struggling to cope with the compounding impacts of severe drought in South West State.
“In particular, the newly displaced women, children, older persons, and people with disabilities now face heightened protection risks and worsening humanitarian conditions on the outskirts of Baidoa town”, he stressed.
The Humanitarian Coordinator called for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and urged all parties to avoid any further actions that could lead to violent conflict.
“Without urgent action, the humanitarian situation in Baidoa town, which already hosts about 430,000 internally displaced people, will deteriorate further,” he said.
“All parties must act now to reduce tensions and create the conditions necessary for displaced families to return safely and with dignity to their homes.”
Conway added that humanitarian organizations continue to be present, committed to providing aid to those in need. According to ECHO, contingency plans are being coordinated to provide emergency response.
Somalia experiences a deepening emergency
Meanwhile, humanitarian needs across the country are rapidly escalating amid a severe food security and nutrition crisis driven by drought, conflict, climate shocks, limited access, displacement, and severe funding cuts. These factors place growing pressure on families and essential services.
In November, the Somali government declared a national drought emergency due to severe water shortages, crop and livestock losses, and large-scale displacement. These conditions are reminiscent of the 2022 crisis, when famine was narrowly averted thanks to significant international support.
Somalia is currently facing one of the most complex hunger crises in recent years amidst a sharp decline in humanitarian funding. An estimated 6.5 million people now face crisis levels of hunger (IPC Phase 3) or worse—nearly double the 3.4 million recorded in early 2025. Among them are over 2 million women, men, and children experiencing emergency levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 4).
In a report released Monday, the World Food Programme warned that shrinking resources, macroeconomic pressure, and reduced assistance are eroding resilience and deepening vulnerability.
In February, the UN agency provided life-saving food assistance to 915,000 people across Somalia. WFP is the largest humanitarian organization in Somalia, working alongside partners to support most of the country's food security response.
However, due to drastic funding cuts, the UN agency can only reach one in seven people in need. Its operations are facing severe funding constraints, and food assistance could halt by July 2026 without new resources.
Children are at great risk amid aid cuts and supply chain disruptions
On Thursday, after concluding a visit to Somalia, Catherine Russell, the executive director of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), cautioned that rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions stemming from the Iran war and the broader conflict in the Middle East pose a significant threat to children who are already struggling with drought, conflict, and aid cuts.
Nearly 1.9 million children under the age of five are at risk of acute malnutrition across Somalia. Of those, over 420,000 face severe acute malnutrition (SAM), and 1.43 million suffer from moderate acute malnutrition (MAM).
“One of the most haunting things to see is bed after bed with malnourished children and anxious mothers just hoping that their children will survive,” Russell said after meeting with families in drought-affected Dollow in Jubaland State.
“The people are incredibly resilient, but they need more support right now as all warning signs are flashing red, including the ripple effect from the war in the Middle East.”
New disruptions caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East are putting additional pressure on global supply chains, which will have serious consequences for Somalia. Transporting food, medicine, fuel, and water is becoming more expensive, putting additional strain on families and aid agencies that are already overwhelmed.
With Somalia’s heavy reliance on imports, prices are climbing rapidly. According to UNICEF, in drought-affected areas, water costs have more than doubled as scarcity grows and fuel for delivery becomes unaffordable.
Water scarcity continues to be one of the most severe drivers of the ongoing emergency. As rivers dry up, boreholes fail, and local water sources become increasingly unreliable, communities are being displaced at an alarming rate. Disease outbreaks, loss of livelihoods, and rising food insecurity are tightening their grip, particularly in areas where the humanitarian presence is dwindling due to funding shortages.
Over the past year, more than 400 health and nutrition facilities, including over 125 centers providing critical nutrition assistance, have shut down due to drastic funding cuts. Without immediate support, more may be forced to close in the coming months, including many located in districts experiencing the highest levels of food and nutrition insecurity.
“For the children of Somalia, every dollar and every minute counts in getting life-saving aid to them,” Russell said.
"What children in Somalia – like everywhere else – need the most is peace, protection and safe access to essential services."