United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed his profound concerns about escalating violence and “bellicose rhetoric” between Israel and Hezbollah along the Blue Line, the demarcation between Israeli and Lebanese armed forces. He warned Friday that the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East is real - and must be avoided. The warning comes as Lebanon is already facing a severe humanitarian crisis due to socio-economic shocks, ongoing political instability and spillover from the Syrian crisis.
“Escalation in continued exchanges of fire. Escalation in bellicose rhetoric from both sides as if an all-out war was imminent. The risk for the conflict in the Middle East to widen is real -- and must be avoided,” Guterres told reporters at UN headquarters in New York.
Since October 7, hostilities along the Israeli-Lebanese border between armed groups - including Hezbollah - and the Israeli military have had a devastating impact on civilians. More than 95,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced by the fighting from the south.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly issued a strong warning to Israel amid reports that the Israeli military has authorized plans for an offensive in southern Lebanon. A further escalation of hostilities would have devastating consequences for civilians on both sides of Lebanon's southern border.
“One rash move – one miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border, and frankly, beyond imagination,” Guterres warned.
“Let’s be clear: The people of the region and the people of the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
Since October 7, Israeli attacks in Gaza have killed more than 37,400 Palestinians, injured more than 85,600 others, and displaced millions. An unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe has been raging in Gaza for more than eight months.
Meanwhile, on both sides of the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon, many lives have been lost, tens of thousands have been displaced, and homes and livelihoods have been destroyed.
Since the escalation of hostilities in October, 1,686 casualties have been reported, including 414 deaths. Of those killed, at least 95 have been confirmed to be civilians. More than 1,700 structures have been destroyed by Israeli attacks.
The Secretary-General said that the parties must urgently recommit to the full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 and immediately return to a cessation of hostilities.
Adopted in 2006 after a brief war between Israel and Hezbollah, the resolution led to a ceasefire between the two sides, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the establishment of a demilitarized zone.
“Civilians must be protected. Children, journalists and medical workers should never be targeted. And displaced communities must be able to return to their homes,” Guterres said.
“The world must say loudly and clearly: immediate de-escalation is not only possible – it is essential. There is no military solution.”
While the risk of miscalculation leading to a sudden and wider conflict is very real, a further escalation of hostilities would have devastating consequences for civilians on both sides of Lebanon's southern border. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), some 60,000 civilians remain in towns and villages along the frontline.
“Further military escalation will only guarantee more suffering, more devastation to communities in Lebanon and Israel, and more potentially catastrophic consequences for the region,” the Secretary-General said.
Guterres added that UN peacekeepers on the ground are working to de-escalate tensions and prevent miscalculation in an extremely difficult environment.
“The cessation of hostilities and progress toward a permanent ceasefire is the only durable solution. The United Nations fully supports diplomatic efforts to end the violence, restore stability and avoid even greater human suffering in a region that has seen far too much,” he said.
Lebanon is still in the grip of the current hostilities, with daily exchanges of fire across the country's southern border. According to OCHA, the most intense bombardment remains concentrated in areas within 10 km of the border, while targeted Israeli airstrikes extend deep into the country.
The attacks have severely damaged water, electricity, and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as roads in southern Lebanon, and have killed maintenance and repair workers, as well as medics and first responders trying to ensure services to the area's remaining residents.
Since late 2019, Lebanon has been facing a complex humanitarian crisis due to several major socio-economic shocks, ongoing political instability, and a sharply deteriorating economy. Hyperinflation, the depreciation of the Lebanese Pound (LBP), and a lack of livelihood opportunities have exacerbated poverty and fueled hunger.
At the same time, Lebanon remains the world's largest refugee hosting country per capita. More than 13 years into the Syrian crisis, the Lebanese government estimates that the country hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees (814,715 are registered), making Lebanon the second-largest host country after Turkey.
The socio-economic downturn in the country has led to an exponential increase in extreme poverty and protection risks for Syrian refugees in Lebanon. 90 percent of refugees are living in extreme poverty. In addition, there are 209,000 registered Palestinian refugees in the country. 180,000 are Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and 31,000 are Palestinian refugees from Syria.
IPC's latest acute food insecurity analysis estimates that between April and September this year, 1.26 million people in Lebanon, including Lebanese and refugee populations, are facing crisis levels of hunger or worse and are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance to reduce food gaps and prevent acute malnutrition.
An estimated 85,000 people are in IPC phase 4 (emergency) and 1.18 million people are in IPC phase 3 (crisis). The current and expected decline in humanitarian assistance in 2024 due to global funding constraints further threatens the food security of households across Lebanon.
An early warning report issued by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) in June placed Lebanon on the list of hunger hotspots where acute food insecurity is expected to deteriorate further between June and October.
Further information
Full text: Secretary-General's opening remarks at press encounter on the Middle East, Office of the UN Secretary-General, delivered June 21, 2024
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2024-06-21/secretary-generals-opening-remarks-press-encounter-the-middle-east