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  1. Humanitarian News

IPC: Worst-case scenario of famine unfolding in Gaza

By Simon D. Kist, 30 July, 2025

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) — the world’s leading authority on acute food security — says that the worst-case scenario of famine is currently unfolding in the Gaza Strip, where access to food and other essential goods and services has plummeted to unprecedented levels. An IPC alert published Tuesday highlights that two out of three famine thresholds have been exceeded in parts of the territory.

Although famine has not yet been officially declared, people in Gaza — particularly infants and young children — continue to starve to death. This is solely caused by Israel’s siege and deliberate obstruction of life-saving aid — a severe war crime and likely act of genocide.

According to the IPC, mounting evidence shows that widespread starvation, malnutrition, and disease are fueling an increase in hunger-related deaths. The latest data indicates famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of the territory and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City, all while the population has lived under catastrophic conditions for over 21 months.

Food consumption, the first core famine indicator, has plummeted in Gaza since the last IPC update in May 2025. Data shows that more than 39 percent of Gazans are now going days at a time without eating. Over 500,000 people — nearly a quarter of Gaza’s population — are experiencing famine-like conditions, while the rest of the population is facing emergency levels of hunger.

Acute malnutrition, the second core famine indicator, has risen in Gaza at an unprecedented rate. In Gaza City, malnutrition levels among children under five have quadrupled in two months, reaching 16.5 percent, which signals a critical deterioration in nutritional status and a sharp rise in the risk of death from hunger and malnutrition.

The rate of malnutrition has risen rapidly during the first half of July. Between April and mid-July of this year, over 20,000 children were admitted for treatment of acute malnutrition, with more than 3,000 being severely malnourished.

Reports of starvation-related deaths, the third core famine indicator, are increasingly common. Yet, collecting robust data in Gaza remains difficult due to the collapse of health systems already devastated by nearly three years of conflict. Nevertheless, hospitals have reported a sharp rise in hunger-related deaths among children under five.

The IPC says immediate action must be taken to end the hostilities and allow for an unimpeded, large-scale, life-saving humanitarian response — the only way to prevent further deaths and catastrophic human suffering.

“The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Alert confirms what we have feared: Gaza is on the brink of famine.  The facts are in — and they are undeniable,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday in response to the IPC alert.

“Palestinians in Gaza are enduring a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions. This is not a warning. It is a reality unfolding before our eyes.”

He added that the” trickle of aid must become an ocean. Food, water, medicine, and fuel must flow in waves and without obstruction. This nightmare must end.”  

“Ending this worst-case scenario will take the best efforts of all parties – now,“ Guterres said.

“We need an immediate and permanent humanitarian ceasefire; the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages; and full, unfettered humanitarian access across Gaza. This is a test of our shared humanity – a test we cannot afford to fail.”

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) warned on Tuesday that time is running out to mount a full-scale humanitarian response.

"The unbearable suffering of the people of Gaza is already clear for the world to see. Waiting for official confirmation of famine to provide life-saving food aid they desperately need is unconscionable," said WFP Executive Director Cindy McCain.

"We need to flood Gaza with large-scale food aid, immediately and without obstruction, and keep it flowing each and every day to prevent mass starvation. People are already dying of malnutrition and the longer we wait to act, the higher the death toll will rise."

As of July 2025, over 320,000 children—the entire population under five in the Gaza Strip—are at risk of acute malnutrition. Thousands of these children suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM), the deadliest form of undernutrition.

Children diagnosed with SAM require immediate, intensive treatment because they are extremely vulnerable to life-threatening complications and face a high mortality rate if they receive inadequate care. Malnutrition also weakens the immune system, making children more vulnerable to infectious diseases.

According to the UN agencies, essential nutrition services have collapsed, leaving infants without access to safe water, breast milk substitutes, and therapeutic feeding. In June, 6,500 children were admitted for malnutrition treatment, the highest number since the conflict began. July is on track to be even higher, with 5,000 children admitted in just the first two weeks.

“Emaciated children and babies are dying from malnutrition in Gaza,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.

She reiterated her call for immediate, safe, and unhindered humanitarian access across Gaza in order to scale up the delivery of life-saving food, nutrition, water, and medicine.

“Without that, mothers and fathers will continue to face a parent’s worst nightmare, powerless to save a starving child from a condition we are able to prevent,” Russell said.

Meanwhile, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned on Tuesday - and also on Wednesday - that deaths linked to hunger and malnutrition continue to be reported in Gaza alongside killings, including of people trying to secure food for their families.

OCHA says this speaks to the sheer desperation of a prolonged, human-made catastrophe. Parents continue to struggle to save their starving children

Despite the partial reopening of crossings, the amount of humanitarian aid entering Gaza is a mere fraction of what the population of over two million people needs. This is because Israel has effectively blocked humanitarian aid to Gaza for more than four months.

In a statement on Sunday, UN relief chief Tom Fletcher welcomed Israel’s decision to support a one-week scaling up of aid, including the lifting of customs barriers on food, medicine, and fuel from Egypt, as well as the designation of secure routes for UN humanitarian convoys.

Fletcher added that "vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis."

“But we need sustained action, and fast, including quicker clearances for convoys going to the crossing and dispatching into Gaza; multiple trips per day to the crossings so we and our partners can pick up the cargo; safe routes that avoid crowded areas; and no more attacks on people gathering for food, “ he said.

According to the UN, the long-standing blockade on the entry of humanitarian aid has created an unpredictable environment. Communities lack confidence that the aid will reach them, resulting in many convoys being offloaded directly by starving, desperate people.

Humanitarian organizations say the Israeli announcement of a one-week humanitarian pause in certain parts of Gaza does not solve the problem of mass starvation and the human-made humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

They stress that airdrops — a dangerous, ineffective, and insufficient method of delivering aid — cannot replace effective delivery methods, especially for the most vulnerable populations, including children, women, the elderly, and people with disabilities, who are already severely weakened because of malnutrition.

“Using airdrops for the delivery of humanitarian aid is a futile initiative that smacks of cynicism. The roads are there, the trucks are there, the food and medicine are there, everything is ready to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza just a few kilometers away,” said Jean Guy Vataux, Emergency Coordinator in Gaza for Médecins Sans Frontières.

Those on the ground say that the Israeli-declared tactical pauses in attacks have reduced the intensity of hostilities, though not significantly enough, in times and areas where they are meant to apply.

On Sunday and Monday — the first two days of the pauses — aid agencies were able to bring more food, mainly wheat flour, as well as ready-to-use infant formula, high-energy biscuits, diapers, vaccines, and much-needed fuel into Gaza.

However, OCHA says the volume of goods entering Gaza is still far from what is actually needed.

More than 60,000 Palestinians killed

Meanwhile, Gaza health officials report that Israeli forces have killed over 60,000 Palestinians, most of whom were children, women, and elderly individuals, and injured more than 145,000 others in attacks on the Gaza Strip since October 2023. Among those killed are more than 18,000 children.

However, the actual death toll is believed to be much higher. Thousands more remain buried under the rubble, and a lack of equipment and insecurity hinder rescue efforts for the wounded and missing. In addition, it is estimated that thousands more have died from indirect causes, such as starvation, lack of medical care, lack of shelter, and dehydration.

Among the recorded deaths are over 1,000 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces since May while attempting to find food in the territory. Most of these deaths occurred at the Gaza “Humanitarian” Foundation's (GHF) militarized aid distribution points, with others taking place near aid convoys.

The GHF is an entity controlled by Israel and the United States. Yet, it is opposed by the United Nations, humanitarian organizations, human rights organizations, and most countries worldwide.

Despite having "humanitarian" in its name, the GHF is regarded as the very opposite of a humanitarian organization. Its establishment for the purpose of weaponizing aid and limiting food aid to small groups of Gazans — those who can reach it and survive crossing combat zones — may itself amount to a war crime, a crime against humanity, or an act of genocide.

Israel's war in Gaza continues to be characterized by grave war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Israeli military and government officials.

These crimes include the collective punishment of civilians, the use of starvation as a method of warfare, the denial of humanitarian aid, the targeting of civilians, the targeting of aid workers, indiscriminate killings, the carrying out of disproportionate attacks, the deliberate targeting of civilian objects and undefended buildings, forced transfers, torture, and enforced disappearances.

According to international human rights organizations and rights experts, Israel's actions in Gaza, including the blockade and obstruction of humanitarian aid, not only constitute flagrant war crimes, or crimes against humanity, but are also part of a genocide against the population of Gaza.

According to their findings, the Israeli government is deliberately inflicting living conditions that are intended to destroy a group or part of a group, as defined in the Genocide Convention.

On Tuesday, two reports by the leading Israeli human rights organizations B'Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights Israel reached the same conclusion: that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in the occupied Gaza Strip.

Despite being accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide —the worst crimes known to humanity — the State of Israel and its government continue to receive financial, military, economic, and political support from the United States, Germany, and a few other allies.

But it is not only the governments of some Western democracies that are failing. Apart from humanitarian and human rights organizations, which have clearly and repeatedly addressed the horrors and atrocities, most civil society organizations — including social welfare organizations, churches, and political parties across the political spectrum — do not even acknowledge what is happening in Gaza. 

They ignore the situation, deny it, or even attempt to justify some of the worst crimes known to humankind.

Further information

Full text: IPC ALERT: Worst-case scenario of Famine unfolding in the Gaza Strip, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), report, published on July 29 , 2025
https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_GazaStrip_Alert_July2025.pdf

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